Final Reality Check

Before you start, understand the reality.

The Statistical Reality

Starting 100 people interested in open source:

End of Month 1:
↓ 70 still active

End of Month 3:
↓ 40 still active

End of Month 6:
↓ 20 still active (20% survival rate)

After 1 year:
↓ 5 regular contributors (5%)

After 2 years:
↓ 1 becomes maintainer/core contributor (1%)

What separates the 5?
Not talent. Not intelligence. Not luck.

↓ Right choice of project
↓ Correct expectations
↓ Resilience after rejection
↓ Focus on learning
↓ Community connection

They didn't do anything special.
They just didn't quit.

Why the Other 80% Quit (Real Data)

Month 1-2: The Honeymoon Phase

People are excited, contributing. Then reality hits.

Problem: First PR takes 2 weeks to merge
Expectation: "My great code will be merged in 2 days"
Reaction: Demoralized. "Why is this so slow?"
Decision: Quit.

Reality check:
- 2 weeks is actually FAST
- Most PRs take 1-3 weeks
- This is normal, not a sign of rejection

Month 2-3: The Rejection Phase

First rejection hits. This is where 40% quit.

Scenario:
"I've been contributing 6 weeks.
Maintainer says my PR doesn't fit project scope."

Bad mindset: "My code is good, they're just gatekeeping"
↓ Quit. They were right, you picked wrong project.

Good mindset: "Interesting. Let me pick issues that fit better."
↓ Continue. Eventually get merged. Learn the project.

Month 3-6: The Confusion Phase

"I don't know what to work on next. I don't feel like a real contributor yet."

Reason: You've done 2-3 small PRs. That's actually normal.

Bad path:
- Feel imposter syndrome
- Stop contributing
- Quit

Good path:
- Realize everyone feels this way
- Keep contributing
- By month 6, you understand the codebase
- By month 9, you're solving real problems

What the Top 5% Did Different (Honest Analysis)

Trait	What It Means	Evidence
Patience	Didn't expect instant results	Contributed for 3+ months before first frustration
Right project	Chose based on interest, not resume	Project in area they cared about
Feedback tolerance	Took criticism as learning	"They rejected my PR. What can I learn?" not "They're mean"
Consistency	Showed up regularly	Contributed weekly, not sporadic
Growth mindset	Focused on learning, not merges	"I'm learning X" not "I got 1 PR merged"

The Real Self-Evaluation Questions

Not "Am I good enough?" → That's imposter syndrome. Not "Will I get a job?" → Too early to think about.

Ask yourself:

1. WHY?
   "Why do I want to contribute?"
   
   Good answer: "I use this project daily and want to help"
   Bad answer: "It looks good on resume"
   
   Bad answers lead to quitting.

2. PROJECT FIT?
   "Do I actually like this project?"
   
   Good: "I use it, I care about quality"
   Bad: "It's popular, so I should contribute"
   
   Bad fit = burnout at month 3

3. PATIENCE?
   "Can I handle 3 weeks for feedback?"
   
   Good: "Yes, I expect delays"
   Bad: "I need immediate feedback"
   
   Wrong expectation = frustration

4. RESILIENCE?
   "What if my first 2 PRs get rejected?"
   
   Good: "That's part of learning"
   Bad: "Then this project sucks"
   
   Wrong mindset = quit at first rejection

5. LONG TERM?
   "Am I ready for 12+ months?"
   
   Good: "Yes, I enjoy this"
   Bad: "Just want quick win"
   
   Wrong timeline = burnout

Success Probability Based on Your Answers

Answer to all 5 well?
Probability of contributing 12+ months: 70%

Answer 3-4 well?
Probability: 30%

Answer 1-2 well?
Probability: 5%

This isn't skill-based. This is psychology-based.
Mindset matters more than coding ability.

Section Map

This isn't a sprint. It's a marathon. Make sure you're running it for the right reasons.

When to Pause or Pivot Why People Quit